13 NBA Takes: What We've Learned This Season
NBA Substack on the epiphanies of the season so far
We asked 13 leading NBA voices on Substack:
What have you learned this season?
Check out their answers and subscribe!
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I keep harping on the unending stream of injuries so far this season, which definitely brings me down and makes me worry about the court-coverage demands in the modern game and what they're doing to players' bodies.
Yet this week in particular has reminded this frequent NBA Cup-basher that: I actually do like the Cup once we get to the knockout games. This is what we want more of: Winner-take-all games that hook us because the whole concept is completely different from drawn-out playoff series and thus a source of foreign intrigue for #thisleague.
It's the NBA's ridiculous group stage format that I can't stand: 60 regular-season games that count twice and really just have "tournament" packaging on them but little tournament substance. The perplexing math demands on all of us in the public when trying to figure out all the point differential rules and the sheer havoc the Cup wreaks on the whole schedule for the 22 teams that don't advance to the knockout phase are two more significant issues that need addressing.
Yet seeing how much fun it is when the Hawks stun the Knicks at Madison Square Garden or when the Magic take the Bucks to the wire despite all their injuries — all because so many players want to get to Las Vegas so bad — that is the good stuff. It all just makes me believe even more than the whole tournament should be contested in Vegas over seven to 10 days with nothing but single-elimination in every round.
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I could be snarky and talk about how the new CBA is making everything so difficult with trades now. But instead, I’ll focus on something I’ve relearned this season: Building a good team is hard!
You can do everything correctly, then one misstep can undo years of progress (Wolves, Sixers, Bucks?). It’s never been about collecting talent. It’s always been about collecting talent that fits and works together (and stays healthy!).
And now it’s more important than ever that the team is sustainable in this new luxury-tax, tax-apron, hard-cap world.
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I've learned that defense isn't dead. Despite the rampant complaints that teams have just solved offense and there's no going back, the league average offensive rating is down almost 2 points per 100 possessions year over year.
The Thunder, the Rockets, the Magic, Dyson Daniels, Jaren Jackson Jr., Evan Mobley … There's so much good stuff happening all over the NBA. It's right there to see if you're willing to pay attention to it.
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Despite Charles Barkley’s refrain that they don’t “have any idea how to play basketball,” the Houston Rockets have convinced me that even in 2024, an NBA team can be “elite” without a true number-one scoring option. This team forced SIX shot clock violations against Golden State on Wednesday, so no, I don’t care that Houston’s leading scorer shoots 39% from the field. In fact, I think that's kind of cool.
Everyone on Houston plays like they strive to be the best defender on the team — and they might be some nights. When a whole roster is exemplary on defense and sufficient on offense … well, I’m starting to think that’s good enough.
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A team's success in the regular season is just as dependent on its worst rotation player as on its best rotation player.
Look at the Nuggets and Bucks: Both teams have one of three best players in the world on their team, and yet they're languishing in mediocrity. Meanwhile, teams like the Grizzlies, Cavaliers, Rockets, and Magic are at or near the top of the standings without a top 10 MVP candidate on their roster.
Having no weak links is the key to churning out regular season wins in 2024.
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I am focussing on something that may become a trend: teams with 12 or 13 players in the rotation. Memphis, Golden State, and Atlanta, for example.
These teams put a lot of energy on the court — they are in the top 10 in deflections, offensive loose balls recovered, and contested shots.
Can a team reach the NBA Finals maintaining those ample rotations in the playoffs? Maybe we'll see it in the next few years.
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One thing I’ve learned: Contrary to recent orthodoxy, you don’t have to trade your superstar, even when he might be frustrated. Donovan Mitchell has been excellent for the league-leading Cavs, sharing the scoring load with Darius Garland and entering Get A Bucket mode when close games call for it.
And yet, I probably would’ve confidently predicted a year ago now that he’d have forced his way out of town, just like a long procession of stars before him. In the NBA, as in life, patience is a rare virtue indeed.
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I’ve learned that Memphis Grizzlies coach Taylor Jenkins can make chicken salad out of any number of animals’ excrement.
Memphis has been a top-five defense in three of the last four years; last year, when they set numerous records for injuries, missed games, and unique starting lineups, they still managed to be in the top half of the league. Jenkins and his staff might be the most unheralded defensive geniuses in the league.
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This season, I've learned that it may finally be time for that generational passing of the mantle in terms of running the league.
There are nine players who are 34 or older scoring at least 16 points per game and all are current/former All-Stars, but none of their teams have home-court advantage in the playoffs right now. The Heat, Warriors and the surprising Clippers are the only ones who would even be safe from the play-in!
Meanwhile, you have teams led by SGA, Tatum, Luka, Brunson, Wagner, and Morant who seem to be solidifying themselves at the top of the league.
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The handoff is the king of the NBA two-man game, especially compared to the pick-and-roll: The top five handoff combinations average 1.34 points per possession, while the top five PnR combos average 1.21, according to Second Spectrum.
Why? Because the handoff allows the player receiving the ball a possible catch-and-shoot 3, and players with more than 100 catch-and-shoot 3-point attempts are shooting 39.3% on those shots. That’s significantly better than the 34.3% shooting on off-the-dribble 3s (by players with more than 100 attempts).
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Zach LaVine is now becoming underrated.
NBA players can turn from underrated to overrated and the other way around in a few seasons. I understand that LaVine’s contract (with $43, $46, and $49 million left) and health may be scary for most teams, but this season LaVine is playing very good basketball — with very efficient percentages and within the Bulls system — without ball-hogging.
If he’s auditioning for a future role as the second or third star in a contender, he’s crushing it.
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The thing I’ve learned most this season — and really, it’s just more a refresher — is that a strong defensive identity remains the ultimate trump card for competitive balance. Just in the last few days, we’ve watched the Magic, Mavericks, Thunder, Rockets, Warriors, and even the Hawks fight like hell on that end in ways that allowed them to work through spells of bad offense. (Sorry, Milwaukee and New York, but your efforts have been meh, at best.)
We talk so much about the juicing of offenses with the 3-point shot, but we haven’t talked nearly enough about all the defensive countermeasures that coaches are now implementing.
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The main thing I think we’re slowly learning is that superteams that work are the exception to the rule.
The Grizzlies are second in the West despite Santi Aldama being a lead contributor, the Rockets rank third with no clear star outside of Alperen Şengün, and the injury-laden Magic, Zombie Heat, and weird-as-heck Hawks are in various parts of the playoff picture in the East.
While the Celtics may continue their dominant ways, their superteam counterparts in the Suns and supposed-to-be-super Nuggets aren’t doing too hot.
I, for one, welcome our new role player overlords.
I will have none of the Aldama slander keeping him out of the star category Mr Sutton! 🤣
Marc Stein hits the target but not the bullseye. Yes, injuries are an enormous and under-reported issue. The larger question is why?
Why are players’ bodies "breaking down" when players today have better nutrition, superior training techniques, advanced shoes and equipment, specialists of every kind, and the best medical care? Why, when these player often have played fewer collegiate games in the "one-and-done" era, not to mention "load management" and other strategies that have intentionally reduced their time on the court? Today, players play less and have orders of magnitude more injuries and more serious ones at that compared to just a few years ago.
I'm not sure I understand what "demands" are being made exactly. It was not that long ago that playing 82 games was not an issue - not discussed at all. It was expected...no big deal. Why has playing the games in the modern era with less inside play in exchange for a barrage of uncontested three-point shots now suddenly become such an issue? Consider for a moment that when the NBA puts out a rule that you must play less than 80% of the games to be eligible for the MVP award (of all things!) - and everyone screams about how unfair it is - just how very wrong things are.
And it's not just basketball...it's everywhere today. You see it in baseball of course, and not only pitchers. I would love to see a running list of how much money professional sports teams have tied up in players on the injured list or sitting out as the season progresses. The total dollar figure must be mind boggling. Huge dollars paid out just waiting for players to do what they are actually paid to do.
Or look at football and the explosion of Achilles tendon tears injuries in recent years. A decade ago, it was an extremely rare injury and career threatening. Now it happens multiple times each season. Sometimes - e.g., Dre Greenlaw - an Achilles tendon ruptures just from running onto the field in the Super Bowl. It's so common now that surgeons have developed new techniques to speed recovery...and so common that we have stopped thinking about just how bizarre and alarming it is.
Yes, injuries continue to be a problem for teams. Figuring out why that is so these days - and why it only gets worse no matter what steps are taken - is the real story waiting for someone to cover.