Best Path to the NBA Finals for 11 West Contenders — and the Playoff Matchups Each Team Should Want (and Avoid)

Here are the most likely Western Conference matchups, and more

We might get another LeBron-Steph Curry matchup in Round 1. What are the odds? (Michael Owens/Getty Images)

The Vegas oddsmakers present a clear picture of the Western Conference playoffs — OKC towers over everyone, followed by three playoff-tested teams: the Lakers, Warriors and Nuggets.

But those betting patterns are, to a large extent, based on familiarity. That’s why it’s useful to take a different approach.

To project how the rest of the season — including the play-in and playoffs — will go, I’ve run 10,000 simulations based on the actual strength of each team. Below are the results — including the key games remaining for each team.

I’m also providing the most likely path to the NBA Finals for each team, plus the matchups that each team will want … or want to avoid.