Surprise, Surprise! 16 Writers on the NBA's Early Plot Twists
NBA Substack on the most unexpected things so far
We asked 16 leading NBA voices on Substack:
What's the early NBA plot twist you didn't see coming?
Check out their answers and subscribe!
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One major early plot twist for me is that the Golden State Warriors aren't done as a title contender yet. Last year's Warriors were far from a bad team — they finished 11th in net rating — but they also missed the playoffs with one of the oldest rosters in the league, then said goodbye to franchise icon Klay Thompson as part of an offseason with above-average roster turnover.
Sure, Steph Curry had an unbelievable Olympics, but it wasn't immediately clear that things would be much different for Golden State when the NBA season rolled around. And yet, despite breaking in some new players — Buddy Hield has been a revelation — and Curry missing some games, the Warriors have zoomed up to No. 3 in the Elo ratings and are back on the short list of teams who have a shot at the championship. No team has added more to their playoff odds in my forecast model since preseason than Golden State.
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Let's be real: I did not see the Cavaliers starting the season with one of the longest undefeated streaks in NBA history.
Cleveland was set up to be very good with an inventive new coach and a long-term commitment from Donovan Mitchell, but to see Evan Mobley's offensive empowerment, Darius Garland operating at full tilt and Mitchell, Jarrett Allen, Isaac Okoro, Caris LeVert and TY JEROME operating at a tremendously high level is surprising and awesome.
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Most pleasant surprise: Cleveland getting off to a 13-0 start that makes me ashamed to admit that I had the Cavaliers at No. 12 in my Opening Night Power Rankings. Who on Earth is going to catch Kenny Atkinson in the Coach of the Year race? (Answer: Probably not a Leastern Conference team when only three out of 15 awoke Thursday with a winning record.)
Most shocking surprise: Miami losing a game because Erik Spoelstra called for a timeout in overtime that the Heat didn't have still sounds absolutely unfathomable even though we all just saw it happen.
Most head-scratching surprise: The face on the new Dwyane Wade statue, which was co-sculpted by the same sculptor who chiseled Dirk Nowitzki's very well-received statue in Dallas, isn't any easier to process than Spoelstra's Tuesday night.
PS — It was nice to divorce ourselves, if only for a moment, from the worrisome early rash of injuries leaguewide and the incredibly scary Gregg Popovich health situation in San Antonio to look at the season so far through a lighter lens.
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Nikola Jokić has managed to surprise me by going up another level — again. He’s averaging a career high in points, rebounds, and assists (while leading the league in the latter two categories). He’s also playing the most minutes of his career and he hasn’t missed a game yet.
I assumed that coming off the Olympics and a disappointing playoff finish that Denver would try and manage Jokić’s workload to start the year. But injuries to Aaron Gordon and poor play from Jamal Murray have forced Denver’s hand. The Nuggets have needed everything Jokić has to offer and he’s delivered.
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The level of perfectly timed advantage-ism, if that’s a way to put it. Specifically: how many teams we might’ve looked at last season as on the verge, or almost there, but without material means (e.g. the people) to get themselves over the competitive hump, now turned incredibly competitive in a chaotic league landscape. Did the Rockets change that much in the offseason? Did the Bulls, the Magic, the Nets?
Who’s to say this stretch will stick when the Goliaths wake up and the juggernauts get up to speed, but it’s sure as hell fun right now.
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I did not expect to be three weeks into the season and thinking to myself, "Payton Pritchard might just go out and win Sixth Man of the Year." Alas, here I am three weeks into the season and thinking just that.
The dude has been dynamite off the bench for the Celtics, absolutely scorching the nets from deep and seemingly getting his hands on everything defensively. Boston needed him to step up and in a big way with Kristaps Porziņģis out, and he has done that and more.
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With all due respect to the not-awful Nets and the undefeated Cavaliers, there's no better pretender/contender debate right now than the Warriors.
So, it's gotta be the Dubs, right? No nostalgia in the Bay for the Golden days. Klay Thompson is not missed, Buddy Hield looks his better right now, Draymond Green looks spry again, Andrew Wiggins looks like the two-way guy that helped them win their last title, and the incomparable Steph Curry remains the incomparable Steph Curry. These guys are deep, they defend, they have a bunch of good wings.
Yup. I'm in the contender camp myself, if you couldn't tell.
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The Dallas Mavericks’ problems in the clutch have surprised me.
Who would say that a team featuring Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving could have so many problems creating points in the clutch? Last year the Mavs were the second-best clutch team record-wise. This season they are 1-5.
Clutch stats have a lot of noise and many people think that those thriller endings are a coin flip. Well, too many tails so far for the Mavs in a Western Conference that waits for nobody.
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I’m surprised at how good Jared McCain is at everything that’s not shooting. We knew the 76ers rookie was a dead-eye 3-point shooter when the team drafted him — that's kind of why they drafted him — but his passing, defense and aggression toward the rim are all much further along in his rookie season than I expected.
Wednesday, he had 34 points and 10 assists (!) in his first career start while Tyrese Maxey remained sidelined. This season might be fully cooked for Philadelphia, but early returns on its first-round pick are stellar. McCain might be special.
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Tanking teams are echoing Ivan Drago: He doesn't know it's a damn show. He thinks it's a damn fight.
After back-to-back victories by Portland over Minnesota, the Blazers join the Pistons, Hawks, Nets, and Bulls with five wins apiece. Some of those starts are more surprising than others, but the collective quality of their play in the majority of these games is a stunner. More than that, every one of those teams has beaten multiple opponents with genuine championship aspirations.
As they say, that's why they play the games.
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There’s lots to choose from here, but I’m going to with Norman Powell’s ridiculous start with the Kawhi-less Clippers. Out of all NBA players, only four are averaging over 20 points per game and 50% from 3: Nikola Jokić (what can’t he do?), Kyrie Irving, Karl-Anthony Towns, and … Powell.
Never mind the fact that he’s 31 years old; Powell has taken over this Clippers team in Kawhi’s absence and has led a play-in-tournament-caliber offense alongside James Harden. Is it sustainable? Probably not, but it’s fun as heck to watch a so-called role player butt heads with Jokić, Irving, and Towns statistically.
Ray LeBov |
After considering Keon Ellis’ DNP-CD, Zach Lowe’s dismissal, and the seemingly unprecedented level of significant injuries to top-line players, I have settled on Ryan Dunn’s shot-making as my biggest surprise.
A first-round pick because of his defensive prowess in spite of his collegiate career 23.5% shooting from 3 (20% last season), Dunn is making 3s at a 37.8% clip in his rookie year. Did anyone see this coming?
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I came into the season expecting a highly stratified food chain. OKC and Boston would be at the top, the alpha predators; a mess of Western teams would compete with Philadelphia, Milwaukee, and New York for contender status; half the league would be fighting to earn the gate revenue from a first-round playoff loss; and five or six teams would be worm food.
Instead, there’s been immense nightly parity and surprises up and down the standings. Despite an aura of invincibility, Boston has three losses, and OKC two. Only three Eastern teams are above .500. Last year’s Western Conference finalists are currently out of the play-in, and Chicago is a six-seed. The Brooklyn Nets – the Brooklyn Nets!! – have five wins. It’s madness!
I know things will even out eventually as teams find their level, but for now, I’ve loved that on any given night, anybody can win (or lose). It’s been the most watchable start to a season that I can remember – wild finishes, close games, and upsets galore. This is why we love basketball!
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I pegged the Nets as the worst team in the East (and the NBA), and they are playing very … average basketball!
The most under-the-radar acquisition of the offseason has to be the Nets' hiring of Jordi Fernandez, since the subsequent hirings of Charles Lee, Kenny Atkinson, and J.J. Redick got a lot more shine. But, with a top-20 offense and defense, two Cams and a Dennis, Fernandez has them looking like a potential spoiler for another team's play-in aspirations, even though they may end up Ainge-ing the second half of the season.
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My surprise is the Bulls are this much fun to watch.
I was higher on Chicago than most going into this season, but it was not because I foresaw the Bulls’ offense being this aggressive and up-tempo. After ranking 28th in pace last season, Chicago is first this year, while also jumping into the top five in passes made per game, 3s attempted, and transition points.
For a team whose offense had become pretty predictably boring, this "seven seconds or less" cosplay has been quite a fun twist to start the season.
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I expected the Warriors to be good, but not 67-win-pace good.
One of their only two losses came at unbeaten Cleveland, and they're blowing teams out to the tune of a +11 net rating, ranking top five in both offense and defense.
Hield has been amazing, converting 42 of 90 3-point attempts, while Curry and Green show little-to-no age-related decline.
I truly do love these compilations. What I find fascinating about this one is how much ink and electrons were deployed in the media just four thin months ago, instructing us on the certainty that the 76ers had at last achieved exit velocity with the acquisition of Playoff Paul...and how the Celtics should be shaking like milk.
Now?
Well, let’s all just get cozy, grab a cappuccino, and talk about those Cavs and Warriors. I think I can help here to get us through our needed steps from anger and denial to acknowledgment and, ultimately, acceptance.
The biggest early plot twist - and there's still time to change the road your on as Robert has said - is the China Syndrome level meltdown brewing - not in Harrisburg, PA - but 100 miles east in the City of Brotherly Love. That plot line is already super interesting and could get a lot more so, very quickly.
I mean we're only a few pages in and we already have a League investigation, the star player giving a beat reporter a good ole Brotherly Shove, and the dials in the control room moving into the red at .182. Man, this is gettin' good. One juicy subplot is that the head of the utility - Josh - is spending a lot of his time in D.C. these days, and might be unaware of how bad it is.
Perhaps the best thing about these stories though is how they make you think differently about things. Like, maybe wildly overpaying to pair an oft-injured over 30 player with another oft-injured over 30 player isn't actually the best approach to roster construction even if every podcaster is calling you a genius. Maybe. I'm just thinking out loud here.
I know this much, I just can't wait to get to the future plot lines. Maybe they snag Harden again at the deadline to completely burn through those fuel rods as the utility tells everyone to stay calm and trust the process. Maybe. On the other hand, kudos to Quinn for alerting me early to a major character in all this that I completely missed on the first pass - Jared McCain.
In any event, buckle up and get those iodine pills ready if your anywhere near the 19148 zip code…